SO ... WHO'S THE WNBA'S ODDS ON FAVORITE TO WIN IT ALL?l

The 2012 season of the WNBA is only weeks away.  Based on previous performance, off season wheeling and dealing, the Draft, and gut feelings, I've put together a list of teams and their chances for taking it all in October.  

WASHINGTON MYSTICS  30-1  I like Natalie Novasel and LaSondra Barett for the future of this franchise.  I think the Mystics will miss Marissa Coleman though.  She had a trailer load of potential.  Langhorne is one of my favorite players, and I believe she'll put up similar numbers this year.  Matee Avajon also did some stellar things in '11.  No reason to say she can't do better this year.  Aside from that, however, I see this season as a stepping stone toward a playoff season.

TULSA SHOCK  25-1  I want to see Tulsa in the playoffs with the picks they've made this year but I have to be conservative.  I can only say that they likely will not be the league's punching bag this year.  I believe that Glory Johnson will do the team some good.  Both Glory and Riquna Williams could potentially win some big games for them down the stretch.   Plus I predict Lynetta Kizer will be a force to be reckoned with in the future.  But I think they need a season to gel before we can put them and postseason in the same conversation.   At least a season. 

CONNECTICUT SUN  20-1  I'm not saying the Sun will have a terrible season.  I'm saying they won't make the playoffs.  If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I just don't see it any other way.   They have youth going for them and Renee Montgomery is always fun to watch.  However in the years since Katie Douglas, Lindsay Whalen and Nykesha Sales have departed the team's never impressed me as a dominant force in the Eastern Conference.  I think Kara Lawson should be a starter and take the reign as captain if you ask me.  They could use more poise.

PHOENIX MERCURY  17-1  With Penny Taylor out for the season with a damaged ACL, I can't justify ranking the Mercury any higher.  The team has won or lost regardless of whether Diana Taurasi has a great game.  When Taylor has a bad game they usually lose.  Plain and simple, her not being on the floor will be a substantial debit.  Everyone is talking about Ohio Buckeye Sammy Prahalis -- the only true point guard in the first round.  I talk about her too.  She had an amazing senior year and she has the legs to match the Mercury's famous run-and-gun offense.  Those matchups against Lindsay Whalen and Sue Bird and Becky Hammon -- the best in the business at the "1" will tell the story.   Yes, they did pick up Charde Houston and still have Krystal Thomas but I don't see them making the playoffs this year.

INDIANA FEVER  16-1  Tamika Catchings finally brought home her first MVP Award.  As I said in an earlier post, the frustrating thing about her legacy in the league is that her teammates over the years haven't quite matched her intensity, which I realize is a great deal to ask for.  Sadly, I think the Fever will come up short again this year.  Bright spots include a healthy Briann January and an impressive big woman in Sasha Goodlett.  I also like three point phenom Jeanette Pohlen, who played marvelously whenever Katie Douglas was on the bench.  Aussie point Erin Phillips' performance during their series against the Liberty was brilliant, but she kind of floundered versus The Dream.   What the future holds is anyone's guess.  But I'd be surprised if they make the Finals.

SEATTLE STORM 15-1   I don't expect the Storm to do all that much aside of making the playoffs. There's nothing in the way of momentum after that heartbreaking loss to the Mercury last year. Lauren Jackson's history of injuries makes me too leery to rate them any higher. Plus, it is an Olympic year, so she'll be out for a good portion to represent Down Under. I think rookie Shekinna Stricklen will make a mark, but not enough to help take the Storm all the way. As a sidenote I don't think future Hall Of Famer Katie Smith will play beyond this upcoming season. Ditto for Tina Thompson.


                                    


ATLANTA DREAM  13-1  Why do I rate the two time defending Eastern Conference Champs so low?   I think Erika de Souza's absence to represent Brazil in London will take some early steam out of the team that longer well after she comes back.  Izi Marques has left, and I think the Dream will miss her.  She was incredible against the Fever in postseason last year.  I would have kept her and traded Armentie Price.  On the upside, it will be interesting to see how Angel McCoughtry and Tiffany Hayes work together.  The Dream is a fast group of women -- the East's version of the Mercury in some ways.  Results could be very positive.  As for their bigs,  I always thought Allison Bales could have been a major factor given her size, but we'll never know.  She has retired to enter medical school.  We wish her good luck.  At least they have Sancho who won some tight games for them in '11.

NEW YORK LIBERTY  12-1   This is where it gets tough.  I think another summer without the services of Janel McCarville will hurt.  Most Improved Player Kia Vaughn did very well in Janel's absence, but they don't have strong post up force.  They drafted relatively unknown Kelley Cain who played for Pat Summit in Tennessee.  She's  6'6" - a big body.  Whether she makes a difference remains to be seen.   Katelin Redmon of Gonzaga, the Lib's second pick and 36th overall,  looks solid though.  I personally think this team is getting long in the tooth and could use more youth anyway. Cappie Pondexter is still one of the deadliest two guards in the game, though her numbers were more amazing when she was in Phoenix. Having said that, I think they should do well, just not win it all.

SAN ANTONIO SILVER STARS  10-1  With elder stateswoman Tully Bevilaqua not getting any younger, I like the Stars' pick, Miami's Shenise Johnson, a whole lot.   Ruth Riley's departure shouldn't hurt them that much.  I see Tangela Smith contributing significantly.   I also see Danielle Adams branching out even further in '12.  Many say that she would've been 2011 Rookie Of The Year if not for her injury.  I agree.  Kid's got a sweet touch and plays with surprising maturity.  And speedy Danielle Robinson is exciting to watch as well.  On another note, I don't know if Becky Hammon will have the legs this year, yet every time I doubt her she surprises me.   Not as big on Jayne Appel as I was when she was at Stanford but hopefully she'll surprise too.  

CHICAGO SKY  8-1  I like the Sky's chances.  I think new acquisitions Swin Cash and Le'Coe Willingham will compliment Sylvia Fowles very well.  I look for 2011 steal leader Epiphanny Prince and Courtney Vandersloot to only get better.  Plus they have the legend Ticha Penicheiro coming off the bench.  If they don't make the playoffs this year something is definitely wrong.  And yes, I'm going out on a limb and saying they'll make it to the Finals.  I can't put a finger on it but something tells me they'll be in the Finals this October.

LOS ANGELES SPARKS  5-1  When the Sparks changed coaches,  got Marissa Coleman plus Alana Beard, and nabbed the number one pick, which turned out to be Nneka Ogwumike, I said to myself that they would be this year's WNBA Finals Champs.  But while I'm certain they'll do much better than last year, I think it'll will take a season for this new group of ballers to hit championship stride.  A healthy CP3 and Nneka could do all kinds of damage if the chemistry is there.  Candace is her own universe in many ways and you wouldn't want a crowded frontcourt to get in the way of her ferocious play.  My crystal ball shows a memorable playoff round with the Lynx in September.

MINNESOTA LYNX   3-1   As the old saying goes, if it ain't broke don't fix it.  I think rookie Peters and veteran Brunson will be huge together this season.  I look for Maya Moore to only get better.  And the backcourt?  No worries.  Best in the league in my opinion.  Did I mention they have youth on their side?  They sure do.  Coach Reeves has a well oiled machine.  True, the WNBA hasn't had a franchise repeat in ten years (something that in my opinion hurts the league to a degree because it doesn't allow for rivalry), but the Lynx are as good as any to buck the trend.  I only see the Sparks giving them any serious comp.

So there you have it.  Disagree if you will.  In fact, I welcome it. 
But for crying out loud, let the season begin already.   

- WNBA Jones

Ten Years Of Catch

A steal, a rebound, an assist, more points on the board -- name anything the Indiana Fever need and Tamika Catchings seems to get it at the right time every time.  Arguably the most versatile player the WNBA's ever had, "Catch" can singlehandedly mold the outcome of any game.  And so driven is she to win that even when the Fever lose, as a fan, you know that Tamika did her very best to get the W -- and then some.  

Just before she finally won the longgg overdue MVP Award last year, Catch enthusiastically remarked that winning a championship was infinitely more important.  It's that unselfish admission you'd expect from a consummate team player.  But that's also the frustrating part.  

We love basketball because it exemplifies the word team perhaps more so than any other team sport.  Chicago Bulls had Jordan, but even with Pippen, the team's third championship wouldn't be clinched without Jim Paxon's dramatic last second jumper.  So much depends on the rapport and  cohesiveness between players and coaches.  And then even with that, it's about getting the calls, capitalizing on timely turnovers, avoiding injury, playing through pain.  There's competence but there's also the variables of fortune and misfortune, of circumstances no team has control over.

In a perfect world, Catch would have nabbed multiple MVP awards and at least three rings.  Instead, she's played in eight postseasons (including the last seven in a row) without much to show for it aside from a grueling five game series against the Phoenix Mercury in the 2009 Finals.  

To be honest, when longtime Connecticut Sun Katie Douglas joined the Fever in 2008, I thought the Fever would win it all.  Katie had led the Sun to multiple post seasons and the Fever had put together another 21-13 season in 07, en route to the Eastern Conference Finals.  It appeared that she was the missing piece that would best compliment Catch.  But Catch missed eight games and despite ranking third in defense, Indiana suffered a disappointing 17-17 record before coming up empty in the playoffs one mo gin.

All of that makes the championship a source of unrequited love for the former Lady Vol.  No one in the WNBA hustles more.  No one.  Ask me which female baller would I want to go up against any NBA star and the answer is easy. She does things on the court that are unstatable, like the many lunges she makes for the loose ball.  Her presence alone can intimidate the most fearless of competitors.  "I've watched her on television", said Lynx rookie and UConn Lady Huskie legend Maya Moore.  "But to play against her was something totally different." 


The question of where she ranks among the WNBA's all-time best almost spoils it.   I will say she's certainly the best small forward to do it (though my favorite Aussie, the Mercury's Penny Taylor, is no slouch at the three either and yes, her torn ACL is a thorn in my heart).    It's already well known that she's the league's career steals queen.   If you've been sure-handed all of your career thus far, Catch will likely be the first to pick your pocket.  But she also ranked in the top ten for blocks five of her nine years in the league.  Her 16.7 points per game is fifth among active players but then she's fifth among the same group in assists as well.  She covers all angles.

Consider these quotes courtesy All Ball at NBA.com:

Tina Charles: TC reminds a little of TD, Tim Duncan, in that she is a double-double machine who began her career as the league’s Rookie of the Year, and, if things break right, could add a Finals MVP award in her sophomore season if she and the Sun can get past Catchings’ Fever.

Diana Taurasi: Her all-around brilliance would suggest talent on par with your Larrys, Magics and Michaels. 

Geno Auriemma: She is all the things you do not want to compete against. But she’s also all the things you want in a teammate.” Hmmm — a player you’d hate to play against but love to have on your team. Almost sounds like Dennis Rodman to me.

Knowing what Coach meant, I wouldn't put Rodman and Catch in the same sentence, but I'm sure the outspoken UConn taskmaster has said worse.   Anyone who's good at reading lips during a Huskie game knows.


I don't expect The Fever to win it all this year.  Playoffs, yes.  But no championship.  Not in my forecast.  The Sky look sensational on paper and it'll be interesting to see how Tiffany Hayes works with Angel McCoughtry in the ATL.  Given how they faired in the Draft, I'd expect the Mystics to win many more games than they did last year.  And oh, that's just the Eastern Conference.  

But one thing is certain: win or lose, Tamika Catchings will give it her very best to lead her team to victory.   She'll have the Fever crowd on their feet, she'll give opposing teams headaches, she'll intimidate all the highly touted rookies.  And yeah, she just might win MVP again. 

"If I watch a game I expect the players to give it 150%.  I make sure I give that myself".  
 

 

 - WNBA Jones

Brittany Rayburn? Hey, I Like Her.

First Round came and went.  So did the Second Round.  Then the Third.  By the time it was all said and done the 2012 WNBA Draft had amassed its share of stellar stars, dependable role players, and a few no-names (not women who can't play, just players I forgot existed).  But there was one impressive baller whose name was never called.  Her name is Brittany Rayburn, a six foot sharpshooting guard from Purdue.

I watched Britt's games on ESPN3 then found some footage of her on YouTube.  Kid can play.  She was the Boilermakers' highest scorer two seasons running, and shot 36% from behind the arc this year.  She made headlines this January when she tied an NCAA record sinking twelve tres against the Minnesota Gophers.  She lit the house up for 38 points that night -- an outstanding performance.   She had been fairly solid all season long.  Somehow she got overshadowed.   

Now I know all too well that the WNBA is as competitive as it gets.  Twelve teams and a handful of spots.  And the final selecting is meant to satisfy a team's needs, not merely to attract attention by recruiting the popular NCAA All American.  But what is also true is that Brittany Rayburn was and is every bit as good as many of the ladies who were selected, particularly in the Second and Third Rounds.  

Why she wasn't selected is anyone's guess.  I'm a stickler for FG% and her numbers in that department were not the best.  

But still.  

After Purdue's run ended, the Attica, Indiana native who loves animals was asked about her plans.  She responded by saying she would enter Purdue's veterinary school.  She really is a sweet, caring young woman.  And very bright -- she posted a 3.7 GPA and has placed on the Athletic Director's Honor Roll.  But, I could tell that she was, in some ways, protecting herself from the disappointment of not making a WNBA squad. 

  

Fortunately, The Minnesota Lynx (LosLynx) offered her an invite to their April 28th training camp.  One sportswriter remarked that the Lynx probably saw what Rayburn did to the local Gophers and reasoned that they should scoop her up before she does that to the Lynx and burns the state twice.  In any event, I hope she raises the roof at training camp.  I'm a sucker for Cinderella stories.  

 

Peace,

WNBA Jones

2011's Most Underrated WNBA Phenoms (In No Particular Order)

2011's Most Underrated WNBA Phenoms
(In No Particular Order)

Expect most, if not all, of these women to have an even better season in 2012.

Tanisha Wright  - Seattle Storm  Woman is cash money from the FT line and decent FG% too.

Danielle Robinson - San Antonio Silver Stars  A speedy energetic player that makes the rest of the league seem that much older.

Kara Lawson - Connecticut Sun One of the league's most intelligent players and could easily be a starter.

  

Jeanette Pohlen - Indiana Fever  Awesome from behind the arc, did a good job filling Katie Douglas's role.

Erin Phillips - Indiana Fever  Exceptional job filling in for the ailing Briann January

Jessica Adair - Minnesota Lynx  I like this kid.  She could be a real monster some day soon.

Jantel Lavender - Los Angeles Sparks  With the presence of Nneka Oguimike and Marissa Coleman, the front court seems crowded, but I'd use Jantel to her full potential.  Woman has promise.  

Ebony Hoffman - Los Angeles Sparks  Deadly from downtown, but  I'd make her post up more too.  She's a presence. 

- WNBA Jones

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I LIke Surprises ... But

The 2012 WNBA Draft was held this past Monday and, while many experts agreed that next year's draft would be perhaps the most anticipated in league-history (courtesy of the heralded Brittney Griner, Elena Delle Donne, and Skylar Diggins),  this year's event did provide a few surprises.  And hey, I like surprises.  Questionable ones like the curveball the New York Liberty tossed with their first round selection of Tennessee Vol Kelley Cain however, threw me completely.  It threw off all the ESPN commentators as well including former Lib Rebecca Lobo.  It took them all a sec to process who Cain was -- a player who missed her entire senior year due to injury.  Though she did play overseas this year, it had appeared, from this clip, that playing basketball in the future would be doubtful ... like Peyton Manning type doubtful: 

I had imagined the Liberty would select speedy point guard Sammy Prahalis out of Ohio State.  I mean, I like Leilani Mitchell, their current woman at the one, but Prahalis is more of a scorer, more aggressive, more of a complete floor general, not to mention slightly bigger.  Well, as fate would have it, the Phoenix Mercury scooped her up -- a smart move considering that team's run and gun style of play and the loss of Temeka Johnson.  The word was that Liberty coach and general manager John Whisenant wanted a big body anyway, and, at 6'6", Cain fits the bill -- but there were other players, other healthier players, that could've seized that role just fine.  Heavy duty, dirty in the paint players like Sasha Goodlett or LaSondra Barrett.  I hope Whisenant's decision does not come back to haunt him.  He should be well aware that the Liberty have the most playoff appearances without a trophy.   I hate to say it but I would not be astonished if they miss post season this year.  You didn't hear it from me.

As for good surprises?   Well, I'll point out the obvious first.  We know Nneka Ogwumike will wreck.  Nneka and a healthy CP3 will wreck the league.  In fact I will go so far as to put them in the 2012 WNBA Finals ... so long as CP3 stays off the disabled list.  I don't think the Lynx will have that hunger to repeat and I expect their star players to be rather weary from the London Games.  Not ineffective, just too tired.  

The team that will turn heads will be the Tulsa Shock.  Trust me when I tell you that they will NOT lose 31 games.  I just don't see that happening.  They picked four more than capable women in Glory Johnson, Riquna Williams, Vicki Baugh, and Lynette Kizer.   All should see decent playing time.  C'mon.  They gotta be good for at least 15 wins.  At least.  

I think the Washington Mystics, Chicago Sky will improve on their 2011 records.  However I think the Indiana Fever, Atlanta Dream, and Phoenix Mercury will see a drop.  The Mystics added the aforementioned  LaSondra Barrett and Fighting Irish phenom Natalie Novasel.  Clever pickups in my opinion.  Both have exceptional collge track records.  Meanwhile, the Sky acquired veteran forward Swin Cash.  Everywhere that woman has gone, she leaves with a ring.  Cash and Sylvia Fowles should be interesting.   They also boast  Le'coe Willingham and Ticha Penicheiro.  Lookin good.  Will they make it to the Finals?  I think they have a bona fide shot.  We'll see.   The Eastern Conference could surely use a championship to keep the league buoyant. 

The Fever are getting older.  'Nuff said.  It would be nice to see Tamika Catchings get hers but it won't happen this year.  The Dream, even with newly minted member Tiffany "Tip" Hayes from UConn, are not in my forecast to return to the Finals.   Their star center Ericka DeSouza won't be there because of her Olympic obligations to her native Brazil.  And they will miss her badly, like they did in the first two games of the 2011 WNBA Finals.  The Mercury will miss Penny Taylor who's out with a torn ACL.  I've always loved Penny's style of play.  As good as any small forward to play the game.  The Mercury will no doubt suffer.  

But I will say I'm fond of their new point guard Sammy "Styles" Prahalis.  I, personally, would've preferred a point guard of, say, Lindsay Whalen's size.  They have Sammy listed as 5'7" and I think that's being generous.  But hey, this kid's got chutzpah to spare.  I'll leave you with this vid:

Peace.

WNBA Jones